Synth

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  <a href="https://www.synthdata.co/">
    <img alt="Synth banner logo" src="https://github.com/synthdataco/synth-subnet/blob/main/docs/images/logo.png" height="134" />
  </a>
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<h1 align="center">
    Synth Subnet
</h1>

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    <a href="https://www.synthdata.co" target="_blank">
        <b>Website</b>
    </a>
·
    <a href="https://github.com/synthdataco/synth-subnet/blob/main/Synth%20Whitepaper%20v1.pdf" target="_blank">
        <b>Whitepaper</b>
    </a>
·
    <a href="https://discord.gg/gnt8sFMdg6" target="_blank">
        <b>Discord</b>
    </a>
·
    <a href="https://api.synthdata.co/docs" target="_blank">
        <b>API Documentation</b>
    </a>
</div>

---

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[![License: MIT](https://img.shields.io/github/license/synthdataco/synth-subnet)][license]

</div>

---

### Table of contents

- [1. Overview](#-1-overview)
  - [1.1. Introduction](#11-introduction)
  - [1.2. Task Presented to the Miners](#12-task-presented-to-the-miners)
  - [1.3. Validator's Scoring Methodology](#13-validators-scoring-methodology)
  - [1.4. Calculation of Leaderboard Score](#14-calculation-of-leaderboard-score)
- [2. Usage](#-2-usage)
  - [Quick Start](#quick-start)
  - [2.1. Miners](#21-miners)
    - [2.1.1. Tutorial](#211-tutorial)
    - [2.1.2. Reference](#212-reference)
    - [2.1.3. Automated Deployment](#213-automated-deployment)
    - [2.1.4. Backtesting](#214-backtesting)
  - [2.2. Validators](#22-validators)
  - [2.3. Develop](#23-develop)
- [3. License](#-3-license)

## 🔭 1. Overview

> **TL;DR** — Miners submit ensembles of simulated price paths for a basket of crypto, equity, and commodity assets across two timeframes (`24h` and `1h`). Validators score each ensemble with CRPS on price changes over multiple time increments (plus realized volatility for Crypto 1h), take a rolling weighted average within a per-timeframe window (10 days for `24h`, 5 days for `1h`), and allocate emissions via softmax — equally split between 3 competitions: Crypto 1h, Crypto 24h, Commodities/Equities 24h. Lower CRPS → more emissions.

### 1.1. Introduction

The Synth Subnet leverages Bittensor’s decentralized intelligence network to create the world's most powerful synthetic data for price forecasting. Unlike traditional price prediction systems that focus on single-point forecasts, Synth specializes in capturing the full distribution of possible price movements and their associated probabilities, to build the most accurate synthetic data in the world.

Miners in the network are tasked with generating multiple simulated price paths, which must accurately reflect real-world price dynamics including volatility clustering and fat-tailed distributions. Their predictions are evaluated using the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), which measures both the calibration and sharpness of their forecasts against actual price movements.

Validators score miners on short-term and long-term prediction accuracy, averaging each miner's per-request scores over a short rolling window so that recent performance dominates. Daily emissions are allocated based on miners’ relative performance, creating a competitive environment that rewards consistent accuracy.

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    <img
        alt="Overview diagram of the synth subnet"
        src="docs/images/[email protected]"
    >
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Figure 1.1: Overview of the synth subnet.

The Synth Subnet aims to become a key source of synthetic price data for AI Agents and the go-to resource for options trading and portfolio management, offering valuable insights into price probability distributions.

<sup>[Back to top ^][table-of-contents]</sup>

### 1.2. Task Presented to the Miners

```mermaid
sequenceDiagram
    participant Miner
    participant Validator
    participant Storage

    loop Every Hour
        Validator->>Miner: Request with input prompts
        note left of Validator: asset='BTC', start_time='2025-02-10T14:59:00', time_increment=300, etc.

        Miner-->>Validator: Prediction results
        note right of Miner: result: price prediction <br/> [<start_time>, <time_increment>, [97352.605, ...], [97361.753, ...], ...]

        Validator->>Validator: Run "prediction results" validation function

        alt Validation error
            Validator->>Storage: Save error
        else No errors
            Validator->>Storage: Save prediction results
        end
    end
```

Miners are tasked with providing probabilistic forecasts of an asset's future price movements. Specifically, each miner is required to generate multiple simulated price paths for an asset, from the current time over specified time increments and time horizon. The network currently runs two competitions distinguished by their forecast timeframe — `24h` and `1h` HFT — and the supported assets on each are listed in the parameter sections below.

The asset set has grown over time:

| Date       | Change                                                                                                                                                                                                                |
| ---------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Launch     | BTC only on the `24h` competition. 100 simulated paths, 5-minute increments.                                                                                                                                          |
| 2025-11-13 | Bumped to 1000 paths; added ETH, SOL, XAU to the `24h` competition. Synth begins moving toward HFT.                                                                                                                   |
| 2026-01    | Added tokenized equities SPYX, NVDAX, TSLAX, AAPLX, GOOGLX to the `24h` competition.